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Apartment rents hit record highs and a warning from Jamie Dimon
May 23rd, 2023
Welcome to Traded’s weekly newsletter where we give you the top New York CRE news and deals to start your morning ahead of the curve, in 5 minutes or less ☀️☕💰
What We’re Serving Up Today
NYC apartment rents have hit record highs
National CRE prices decline for the first time in over a decade
Grim forecast for Manhattan office vacancies
Advice from the late icon Sam Zell
Last week’s big closings
The DIRT 📈
Daily Interest Rate Tracker
What You Need to Know 🗞️
Apartment Rents Reach Record Highs in Three Boroughs as New Lease Signings Decline
Amid market panic, apartment rents in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and northwest Queens are surging, with April marking the second consecutive month of record highs in Manhattan.
Median rents have reached new peaks, accompanied by a decline in concessions from landlords.
The median monthly rent in Manhattan increased to $4,241, an 8.1% rise from last year, as reported by Jonathan Miller at Miller Samuel. Similarly, Brooklyn saw new highs in net effective median rent, while northwest Queens witnessed all price trend indicators reaching new records, although new lease signings declined in both boroughs amidst expanding inventory.
Top Ten Stories
A Warning from Jamie Dimon: "Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here… You should be prepared for 6 or 7%… There's still too much liquidity in the system… Whether it happens or not, we don't know, but you should be prepared for it."
Prices Take a Q1 Tumble: US CRE prices experienced their first decline since the aftermath of the financial crisis more than a decade ago, according to Moody’s Analytics' repeat sales index. The drop was less than 1%, with multifamily and office leading the downward trend.
The New Normal for Office Vacancies: Manhattan's office sector, which held vacancy rates below 11% for decades, is now expected to suffer vacancy rates above 20% until 2026.
Trust us, It Could Be Worse: California is still enforcing pandemic-era eviction bans three years later.
Trouble for Office Loans: 84% of maturing CMBS loans will face refinancing challenges according to Moody's Analytics.
Debt-Ceiling Standoff: Biden and McCarthy meet as pressure is mounting to address the debt-ceiling impasse.
Regional Banks and CRE: The rollercoaster ride continues for the U.S. regional banking system, as banks face a wave of consolidation, stock market tremors, and depositors fleeing for safer shores. Will raising deposit guarantees help bring back stability?
Pickleball Fever: It’s the fastest-growing sport in the US, and popularity is soaring, prompting real estate developers to seize the opportunity.
ICSC Kicks Off in Vegas: The ‘Super Bowl for retail professionals’ is underway.
Wisdom From the Late Sam Zell: The real estate titan was an exceptional visionary with a distinct perspective on investing. Renowned for his bold and unconventional moves, he earned the moniker "the Grave Dancer" for his ability to seize opportunities when others were faced with challenges.
Closing Time 💰️
This Past Week in NYC: 42 deals closed over $2M… 13 deals over $4M… 6 deals over $8M… 2 deals over $70M… OVER $480M in closed transactions… Get to work 💥
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